China's low-density polyethylene is in short supply.

Low-density polyethylene (LDPE), also known as high-pressure polyethylene, has a waxy white resin and its molecular structure is a nonlinear structure with a large number of long-chain branches.

Compared with medium-density and high-density polyethylene, LDPE has lower crystallinity and softening point, better flexibility, elongation, electrical insulation and transparency, and higher impact strength. It is suitable for thermoplastic molding. The molding process has good molding processability.

At present, LDPE is mainly used as a film product, and is also used in injection molding products, medical appliances, pharmaceutical and food packaging materials, blow molding hollow molded products, etc. in agriculture, packaging, electrical and electronic engineering, mechanical equipment, automobile manufacturing and daily use. Miscellaneous goods and other aspects have broad application prospects.

In the future, as the world's LDPE production capacity continues to increase, the world's overcapacity situation will not be fundamentally alleviated, but China still needs to import a large amount of LDPE from the Middle East and neighboring countries.

Low density polyethylene process technology mature

In general, depending on the different polymerization reactors used, we can divide the LDPE production process into a tubular process and a kettle process.

Among them, the tubular process mainly includes Germany BasellLupotech and Imhausen, the United States Exxon Mobil, Japan's Mitsubishi Oil Chemical, Germany BASF, and the Dutch DSM Stamicarbon tubular process. From the perspective of the production equipment, the tubular process has a simple structure of the polymerization reactor, is easy to manufacture and maintain, and the investment in the construction of the device is significantly lower than that of the kettle method. The products produced by this process have better optical properties and are more suitable. For the production of films.

The representative process of the kettle method mainly includes the Italian Eni company, the American Exxon Mobil, and the star company process. Compared with the tubular process, the single-line production capacity of the device is small, easy to switch grades, and the product molecules have more long-chain branches and good extrusion coating properties, which are mostly used for coating resin production. raw material.

World low density polyethylene oversupply

In terms of supply, in recent years, with the completion of the production of LDPE production units in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China, the world LDPE production capacity reached 24.583 million tons in 2017. China is the world's largest LDPE producer. China's production capacity is 3.525 million tons per year, accounting for 14.34% of the world's total production capacity. The second and third countries in the United States and Japan have the world's total production capacity. The proportion was 13.3% and 5.14% respectively.

At the same time, as the top three manufacturers of LDPE production capacity, ExxonMobil's production capacity is 1.596 million tons / year, accounting for 6.49% of the world's total production capacity; Leon Del Basel's production capacity is 1.551 million tons / year, It accounts for 6.31% of the world's total production capacity; Sinopec's production capacity is 1.475 million tons / year, accounting for about 6% of the world's total production capacity.

In terms of demand, in 2016, the total consumption of LDPE in the world was 20.22 million tons. As the two most important consumers, China and the United States consumed 4.88 million tons and 2.285 million tons of LDPE respectively, accounting for 24.14% and 11.3% of the world's total consumption, respectively. In addition, Northeast Asia is the world's largest net importer of LDPE, accounting for 45% of the world's net imports. The Middle East, Western Europe and North America are net export regions, with world net exports accounting for 62%, 18.2% and 17.6% respectively. . Among them, China is the world's largest importer of LDPE, accounting for about 23% of the world's total imports.

It is estimated that from 2016 to 2021, the consumption of LDPE in the world will increase at an average annual rate of about 3%. By 2021, the total consumption of LDPE in the world will reach 23.42 million tons, but the consumption structure will not change greatly, still in film and sheet. Mainly.

Domestic low-density polyethylene is in short supply

On the supply side, as of the end of December 2017, China has become the world's largest LDPE producer. As the main producing area of LDPE in China, the total domestic production capacity of Guangdong, Jiangsu and Beijing accounted for 17.31%, 17.02% and 12.48% respectively. Yangzi-BASF is currently the largest LDPE manufacturer in China, with a production capacity of 400,000 tons/year, accounting for 11.35% of the total domestic production capacity; Yanshan Petrochemical, which ranks second, has a production capacity of 380,000 tons/year. It accounts for 10.78% of the total domestic production capacity.

Since LDPE production cannot meet actual production needs, China needs to import a large amount of LDPE every year. According to customs statistics, in 2017, China's LDPE imports and exports were 2.374 million tons and 54,000 tons, respectively, an increase of 15.68% and a decrease of 26.53% over the previous year. Among them, the amount of LDPE imported from Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, United Arab Emirates and the United States reached 1,659,700 tons, accounting for 69.9% of total domestic imports, an increase of 17.4% over the previous year. Iran has always been the largest import source of LDPE in China. In 2017, it increased to 604,800 tons, accounting for 25.48% of total domestic imports, an increase of 25.68% over the previous year. The total amount of LDPE imported from the United States is only 154,900 tons, accounting for 6.52% of the total imports, which has little impact on the market of LDPE in China.

In terms of demand, from 2012 to 2017, the average annual growth rate of China's LDPE consumption is about 8.1%. In 2017, the consumption of LDPE in China was 5.352 million tons, an increase of 27.6% over the previous year; the product self-sufficiency rate was 56.65%, and it was mainly used in the fields of film products, extrusion coating, injection molding products, wire and cable, etc. About 71.8% of the total consumption, 9.6% of the injection, 7.7% of the coating, 4.2% of the cable, 3.5% of the pipe, and 3.2% of the other.

It is reported that in the future, the largest consumption of LDPE in China is still in the field of packaging, construction, agricultural, food wrapping film and other film products, although in some applications, it is subjected to linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE), biaxially oriented polypropylene (BOPP) film. The competition threatens, but the demand for films that are difficult to replace in the food and sanitation fields will continue to increase. At the same time, injection molding and extrusion coating are also the main consumption areas of LDPE. Injection molding is also affected by substitutes, and special copolymers and graft copolymers in extrusion coatings are important factors for the increase of LDPE dosage.

From the perspective of the downstream industry growth rate, the growth rate of film, sheet and pipe is slightly higher than the growth rate of LDPE total demand, and the growth rate of cable materials is decreasing. With the acceleration of urbanization in China and the acceleration of supporting infrastructure construction, the demand for pipe materials has increased significantly, which will drive the demand of downstream industries in LDPE.

It is estimated that in 2020, China's LDPE consumption will reach 6.5 million tons, and the consumption structure will not change greatly, but it will still be imported in large quantities, especially high-quality products.

Future trends and recommendations

(1) In the next few years, the production capacity of LDPE in the world will continue to increase. The production capacity mainly comes from Northeast Asia, the Middle East and North America. The newly added capacity accounts for 31.2%, 23.4%, and 28% of the world's total new capacity. %. It is estimated that in 2021, the total production capacity of the world's LDPE will reach 27 million tons, and the consumption will reach 23.42 million tons. The situation of overcapacity will not be fundamentally alleviated.

(2) Although the growth rate of LDPE capacity in the Middle East has slowed down, the Middle East is still the main export area of LDPE in the future. At the same time, with the recovery of international oil prices and the commencement of production of ethane cracking projects in the future, North America will surpass the Middle East to become the world's new LDPE capacity growth center. On the one hand, US LDPE exports will continue to increase, Asia and Africa remain the main target markets for LDPE; on the other hand, due to the rapid growth of EVA (ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer) market demand in recent years, some Asian manufacturers will continue to new In the LDPE and EVA projects, the trend of converting EVA to existing devices will continue.

(3) In the next few years, China will continue to build new LDPE production facilities including Baotou Shenhua, Jiangsu Silbang Petrochemical, Ningbo Qiancheng Petrochemical, Shanghai Coking, Zhongke Refining and Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou. If these devices can be implemented as planned, it is expected that the production capacity of LDPE in China will reach 4.5 million tons per year in 2021. However, coal-based and methanol-based LDPE currently face double pressures of low oil prices and environmental protection, and some companies may run off due to funding reasons. Therefore, conditions can be considered to use advanced technology to build new production facilities to meet domestic demand.

(4) Although China's LDPE production capacity continues to increase, but the production capacity and actual demand are quite different, it still needs to import a large amount of LDPE from the Middle East and neighboring countries. In particular, we should pay close attention to the supply and demand of future LDPE in the Middle East, so as not to affect the development of domestic LDPE and related industries.

(5) With the diversification of sources of chemical raw materials, the domestic LDPE market will present a three-point world of naphtha chemical products, MTO (methanol to olefins) chemical products, and imported products.

(6) In the future, China's LDPE industry will only continue to improve the overall technical level, reduce costs, improve product quality, and increase the intensity of new product development to meet actual production needs and promote the healthy and rapid development of related industries.